Sniper Daily Dashboard
Plain-English market read · Gap-risk check · Fed decides tomorrow
Sniper Action Verdict
YELLOW · Trade small or sit out
The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, makes his first interest-rate decision tomorrow (Wed 2 PM ET) —
the biggest unknown of the quarter. Today is calm: oil keeps falling and stocks are mixed (Dow at a record,
tech lower). But selling spreads the day before a surprise-prone event is risky. Take one small trade
at most, or simply wait until the Fed is done Wednesday.
Composite Gap-Risk Score
0–100 · cool→mild→warm→hot→critical
44/100
MILD · up from 38 · Fed decision tomorrow
P(≥1% Overnight Gap to Wed Open)
Trigger 35% · above this line, GREEN verdict is locked out
24%
Below the danger line · the bigger risk is Wed after the Fed
Today in Plain English
New Fed Chair · Wed 2 PM ET
A rate hold is expected — his tone is the wild card
Fed funds
3.50–3.75% (hold ~97%)
Dow / Nasdaq
record high / −2%
VIX
~16.2 (near floor)
WTI crude
~$78–80 (−1.6%)
Today is a "wait it out" day. The Iran peace deal is still calming things down — oil is
sliding toward $78 and war fears keep fading. Underneath, money is just moving around: the Dow hit a new
record while tech stocks (NVDA, AVGO, MU) fell about 2%. If you sell a spread today, you'd hold it right
through the new Fed Chair's first decision tomorrow. Everything looks calm — but the smart
move is to wait.
"Not-DOWN" ideas — sell bull puts
Industrials, financials (today's leaders), and airlines that benefit from cheaper oil. Real strength, but no single big news story behind them — low grade until the Fed is done."Not-UP" ideas — sell bear calls
Energy (XLE, XOM, CVX, OXY) is the best idea: oil is falling and the Strait of Hormuz reopens Friday, which caps the whole group. Semis are dropping too, but that's just momentum, not real news.
Why YELLOW and not GREEN? The gap-risk numbers (44 and 24%) are calm
enough for a green light — but our rule is simple: never go full size right before a Fed decision.
A brand-new Chair's first meeting is the hardest thing to predict. Take one small Energy trade if it checks
out at 9:35 AM, or just wait. Green light likely returns after the Fed finishes Wednesday at 2:30 PM.
The 3 Kinds of Sniper Trades — and how to read the table
Type A
Fresh Post-Earnings Gap
The stock just reported earnings and jumped (or dropped) on the news. The earnings risk is now over.
Sell a bull put (up) or bear call (down)
Type B
News-Driven Gap
A clear piece of news moved the stock — a merger, court/agency ruling, FDA decision, big contract, or layoffs. Not rumors.
Sell with the move — bull put or bear call
Type C
ATH Breakout
The stock broke above its old high on heavy buying. Nothing overhead to stop it. Bullish only.
Sell a bull put only
Two different things, both labeled A/B/C. Setup Type = what kind of trade it is (above).
Sniper Grade = how good it is today:
Grade A take it ·
Grade B trade small / watch ·
Grade C skip it. The table below shows both in their own columns.
What's Driving the 44 Score
Market Snapshot · Tue 6/16
SPX (Mon close)
7,554.29
+1.65% Mon · soft today on chips
Dow / Nasdaq
record / −2%
rotation: value up, growth down
VIX (est.)
~16.2
near floor · ticking up pre-Fed
Russell 2000
Backsliding
cautious ahead of FOMC
WTI · Brent
~$78–80 · ~$82
↓ ~1.6% · Hormuz reopens Fri
10Y Treasury
~4.47%
steady into the decision
Gold
~$4,334
+0.56% · still bid
SpaceX (SPCX)
+~50%
post-IPO surge · ineligible
Today's Setups — Best to Worst (re-check all at 9:35 AM)
| Ticker / Group | Bias | Setup Type | Sniper Grade | Read & why it's graded | 4-VAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy · XLE/XOM/CVX/OXY | Bear call | Type B | Grade B | Best idea. Oil is falling and Hormuz reopens Friday — that caps the whole group. Real news, but it's Fed eve, so trade half size. | PENDING · ½ size |
| Semis · SMH/NVDA/AVGO/MU | Bear call | Type B (weak) | Grade C | Falling fast after a big run, but that's just momentum, not real news. Shorting a fast-dropping market before the Fed is risky. | WATCH |
| Industrials & Financials | Bull put | Type B (rotation) | Grade C | Today's leaders with the Dow at a record, but no single news story and little support built yet. Wait. | WATCH |
| Robinhood (HOOD) | Bear call | Type B | Grade C | Cutting 10% of staff is real news, but it's small, the stock only dropped about 1.5%, and there's little support nearby. | WATCH |
| Yum Brands (YUM) | Bull put | Type B | Grade C | Splitting off Pizza Hut is solid news, but the stock barely moved (+0.85%) — not a strong enough setup before the Fed. | WATCH |
| SpaceX (SPCX) | — | — | INELIGIBLE | Brand-new IPO (+~50%): no options history, no support levels, not enough trading. Can't use it. | INELIGIBLE |
What Could Happen Next (through the Fed)
Most likely — Quiet day, then wait for the FedMoney keeps rotating; Dow firm, tech soft; everyone waits for Wed 2 PM
46%
Good case — Fed sounds calm, stocks rallyRate hold + friendly tone → relief rally and volatility drops after the decision
22%
Bad case — Fed sounds tough, stocks dropNew Chair leans tough on sticky inflation → risk-off, tech leads the drop
26%
Surprise — Iran or the Fed shocks the marketIran deal stumbles before Friday, or a shock from the Fed → oil and volatility jump
6%
What to Watch
- The Fed decision · Wed 2 PM (Q&A 2:30) — a rate hold is ~97% expected, but a brand-new Chair's first meeting is the hardest thing to predict this week.
- "Cuts coming" could become "no cuts" — if the Fed signals fewer rate cuts ahead, growth and tech stocks can drop fast.
- Semis rolling over — NVDA, AVGO, MU falling after a big run; don't short them without the 9:35 AM check.
- Friday's Iran signing — the deal is signed Friday while the market is closed; headlines could move oil over the long weekend.
- Inflation still sticky (~4.2%) — limits how friendly the Fed can sound.
Yesterday vs Today
| Dimension | Mon 6/15 (peace-deal pop) | Tue 6/16 (FOMC eve) | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Gap-Risk Score | 38 (MILD) | 44 (MILD) | +6 · event inside 24h |
| P(≥1% gap) | 22% | 24% | +2 pts (pre-decision) |
| VIX | ~15.8 (near floor) | ~16.2 (ticking up) | +0.4 |
| Tape | Broad risk-on gap up | Rotation: Dow record / Nasdaq −2% | narrowing leadership |
| WTI crude | ~$80.20 (−5.5%) | ~$78–80 (−1.6%) | still easing |
| Dominant catalyst | U.S.-Iran peace deal | Warsh's first FOMC (tomorrow) | geopolitics → policy |
| Sniper Verdict | YELLOW | YELLOW | hold fire into the Fed |
Sniper Master Prompt v3.2 · Michael Wade Trade Coaching · mwtradecoach.comComposite 44/100 · P(≥1% gap) 24% · Verdict YELLOW · Re-run after FOMC Wed 6/17 2:30 PM
⚠️ AI-generated — may contain errors. This report is produced by an AI model using live web data and can be wrong, incomplete, or out of date. Verify every number and headline yourself before acting on anything here.
Educational purposes only — not investment advice. The Freedom Management Group, Inc. d/b/a Michael Wade Trade Coaching is not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary. All trades are at your own risk; past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk and you can lose more than your investment — always paper trade first before risking real money. By using our services, you agree to our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.
Educational purposes only — not investment advice. The Freedom Management Group, Inc. d/b/a Michael Wade Trade Coaching is not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary. All trades are at your own risk; past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk and you can lose more than your investment — always paper trade first before risking real money. By using our services, you agree to our Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy.